The final goal in the 3-1 victory over Doncaster had points of interest from both an attacking and defending point of view. The first two goals scored on the night came from Gary Taylor-Fletcher, the first from a brilliant long curved pass over the Doncaster defence from Neal Eardley and the second self-created with quick feet and craft.

Double Phase

The goal was a product of two phases of play. The first phase being an attacking free kick for Blackpool and the second, reclaimed possession from the free kick resulting in the goal. The start of the first phase is pictured below.

Whilst Doncaster do win the header at the free kick they don’t clear the ball to safety and nor does the man on the edge of the box (highlighted) react quick enough to the loose ball. Not in the picture above is the man who is responsible for initiating phase two, Barry Ferguson.

Fergie Time & Again

Ferguson has been fantastic for Blackpool this season, his technique is of a very high standard which makes errors on his first touch very rare. His positional sense is superb and allied with great vision and leadership he is able to organise the team around his position. He is generally first to collect orders from Holloway and distribute them and at attacking set pieces you can see him pointing to his players advising them where to go. Such is his quality of positional work it often escapes notice. It takes a goal such as this to really appreciate his role in the Blackpool team. In attack, he supports the team and provides the back up when attacks either break down or fizzle out.

In the picture above you can see that he was perfectly positioned to pick up on the loose ball and in a split second Ferguson has possession of the ball and without any hassle the ball has started on its path towards the back of the net. It looks simple, but in reality that kind of play is hard to do, you need to be in the right position, you then need the required technique to secure the ball and move it on. Poorer players could have lost possession in such a situation and left their team open to a fast break.

Fab-Trio

The Blackpool goal then lends itself to three more excellent pieces of work.

1. A brilliant through ball from Kevin Phillips allowing Alex Baptiste to advance.
2. A hard and accurate shot from Baptiste. He knows he need to either shoot or cross. His run and position isn’t that dissimilar to the goal he scored against Crystal Palace earlier in the season and here he makes the keeper make a save.
3. Nouha Dicko understands his position well and knows he needs to both make himself available for a cross and in position to poach any loose ball that may rebound. He does the latter superbly well to put the game beyond Doncaster.

Back Baps

Arguably, the key element of those three is the role that Baptiste plays. It has been said on this blog this season that Blackpool look their most potent when Baptiste steps in to attack. The main reasons for this is that at several points this season Blackpool have been stymied and tend to struggle for creative ideas around the final third, often slowing the tempo of the game too much and having poor movement ahead of the ball. In such cases it’s important for midfielders to make runs beyond the ball and if that doesn’t happen then the defence can do the same. In doing so, they can create overloading situations against the opposition defence and in turn get behind the defensive line which can be vital in any football match.

Turn & Face

It is that last sentence that leads to the final point to be made about the goal. It’s is a great example of why an attacking team needs to turn a defensive line around and get them running towards their goal. It pushes them closer to their own goal, but also only very good defenders can recover their awareness of the match situation to deal with the imminent threats. Here, Doncaster have only just turned to face their goal when the shot comes in from Baptiste and they have little time to understand where the Blackpool players are and react before the ball is in the net.

Moving On

You can view this goal and the others from the match against Doncaster over on the BBC website through the link below

Doncaster 1-3 Blackpool

Overall this was a good team goal and a good three points for Blackpool as they move on to an FA Cup clash with Everton. A preview of that game can be found on the link below.

Everton v Blackpool – FA Cup 5th Round – 18th March 2012

Two sides to the story

In this analysis the two facets being focused on are the excellent movement of Huseklepp and the defending from Blackpool. To preface the analysis Ian Holloway argued vehemently that the ball should never have been at Blackpool’s end of the pitch due to a poor refereeing decision. Here, however, that element will be ignored. The goal was scored and let’s focus on exactly why.

Chances

Like Cardiff last week the Blackpool defence were given at least two warnings that they never dealt with in the run up to conceding. Firstly, from the throw in, Chris Basham had a challenge that had he won, would have snuffed out the attack. Secondly, after Matt Gilks made his save Blackpool could have reacted quicker to the loose ball to stop Portsmouth regaining possession in the Blackpool box.

Switching off

However, the reaction from Craig Cathcart after the goal was scored suggests he was well aware of his role in the goal. Before going in to detail here it’s critical to note that Cathcart had a fine game and defended most of his situations well including a Bobby Moore style stop to thwart a possible goal scoring opportunity. However, as the goal events were unfolding there is enough to question both Cathcart’s positional awareness, concentration and decision making. The screen shot below shows the position of the Blackpool back four prior to the shot coming in which Matt Gilks saves.

You can see how all four defenders hold a decent position. Cathcart (two red dots above his head) has Huseklepp (two blue dots) in his sights. Cathcart initially goes with Huseklepp’s first run, anticipating that he may pick the ball up. However, Cathcart watches the ball as the shot comes in whilst Huseklepp shuffles his run and ghosts in behind Cathcart. You can see below how Cathcart is unaware of where Huseklepp has gone.

This was the warning for Cathcart. Huseklepp will keep moving and darting around to fool him. Cathcart has decisions to make. Stick to the man and risk being pulled out of position, keep his position or react to the lose ball to snuff out the danger. The picture below shows the situation after the shot has been saved.

As Márkó Futács lines up his shot, Cathcart is aware of that fact but not that Huseklepp is behind him. Cathcart is dealing with the matter in hand, which is all he must feel he can do. However, he must also have a keen appreciation of where Huseklepp has gone.

What follows suggests that he is trying to deal with the matter at hand and has left Huseklepp alone either through a mistake or through passing on marking to a team mate, Barry Ferguson. Ferguson does drop in to cover as Cathcart goes out and this is when three things conspire against Blackpool. Fortune, in that the scuffed shot finds Huseklepp, but also first class movement from the Norweigan to get in-between Ferguson and Cathcart allied to his reaction to the poor shot.

You can see below how Cathcart is left stranded, Ferguson has dropped to cover, but Huseklepp has ghosted in to a great position to seize on the chance. Ferguson cannot react quick enough to block the shot.

Barry Ferguson is highlighted in the tangerine box as he drops in behind Cathcart & Huseklepp.

Premier Striker

In all fairness, Huseklepp made this goal through excellent box play. Constantly moving, making three runs in total, becoming very hard to track. However, Blackpool will know that the situation was solvable and Cathcart will once again add this to his experience in the hope of becoming a top quality centre back.

Cardiff Take The Lead

Watching the Cardiff goal in the first instance there are at least three points of failure for Blackpool. As much as Joe Mason scored the goal, poor Blackpool defending presented the chance. However, before looking at the points of failure it’s important to note why Blackpool ended up defending so close to the goal.

Goals may be scored in a split second, but quite often there’s a stacking up of incidents leading to the goal. They act as a warning to the defensive team that they need to be aware in order to snuff out danger at the earliest opportunity. In this instance, Cardiff got in between Blackpool lines of defence and midfield catching Blackpool out of shape in defence. Remember, this is in the lead up to the goal.

Crainey (circled) is caught high up the pitch, Cardiff advance.

The picture above shows how Stephen Crainey was caught a little high up the pitch and Danny Wilson was dragged over to deal with the oncoming player leaving far too much space between him and Craig Cathcart. It is here were teams have often picked apart Blackpool. The picture below shows how there’s a clear pass on in behind Cathcart for Kenny Miller. Instead of taking that option Mason spreads the play wide. As he opts to do that Cathcart goes to put pressure on the ball and pulls the whole Blackpool defence out of shape.

The blue arrow indicates the play that could have caught Blackpool out, whilst Cathcart (circled) steps up.

It is at this point where Blackpool are at stress point. They are being turned around and need to regroup their shape and become aware of the positions taken up by their opponents. Alex Baptiste goes to apply pressure to the man on the ball and Chris Basham drops to cover at right back.

Now the errors start to mount up. Arguably they were the result of poor defending, but not helped by being pulled out of shape and having to recover shape whilst being turned to face their goal.

Point of failure 1

Blackpool centre back (circled) getting in front of their men. Note Don Cowie is a spare man at the back post, unmarked.

Both centre backs get themselves in poor positions in front of the men they should mark causing a knock on effect. Cathcart is marking space with Mason taking up position behind him. Wilson monitors Miller but realising he has to go to Mason passes on the marking of Miller to pick up Mason, however, he is unaware that Crainey is outnumbered at the back post. This is a combination of positioning, awareness and organisation not functioning very well as there were three Cardiff players in relation to three Blackpool players.

Point of failure 2

Wilson (circled) moves out to the man in anticipation.

In trying to anticipate the knock down by Don Cowie, Danny Wilson goes forward to the nearest man. Had he held his position he could have cut the ball out easily.

Point of failure 3

Cathcart fails to react.

In thinking that Wilson has the ball covered Cathcart switches off instead on staying goal side of Mason and on his toes ready for the worst case scenario. Mason then steals in front of Cathcart to score.

Diagnosis: Goal

This just highlights how goals can be conceded through not dealing with the matter at hand at the earliest opportunity. Nothing has been said about the excellent work that Cardiff did to score the goal. The ghosting movement of Cowie to sneak around the back. The awareness when crossing the ball to pick out Cowie at the back post and the anticipation of Mason to steal in front of Cathcart.

It gives Blackpool a good few things to think about from a defensive point of view, but will not take anything away from a good three points on their travels as perhaps the dreaming may start once again.

Foundations

Let’s define the Blackpool squad for the purposes of this article.

It is also important to outline how this squad has been comprised. Rather than list everyone on the books, a few reasonable assumptions have been made to whittle the squad down to what could be described as the first team squad. Those assumptions include deleting Bojan Djordjic from the squad due to the fact he hasn’t been near the subs bench since the Crystal Palace game back in September and it’s unlikely he’ll get a start for the club in a league game. One player in a similar situation to Bojan is Gerardo Bruna, however, he has played in a league game and may yet feature in the second half of the season and has been included, for now.

Another assumption is to remove any players who are on loan to other clubs. Players such as Adam Dodd and Liam Thomsett are at Altringham and unlikely to come back and feature in the squad. Added to this the likes of Daniel Bogdanovic and Brett Ormerod are out on loan at Rochdale and may well not come back to the club given their age and desire to be playing week in week out especially as forwards are in abundance at Bloomfield Road. Also not included are the younger players enjoying good loan spells such as Ashley Eastham and Tom Barkhuizen and players such as Miguel Llera who has just returned from Brentford.

Loans have featured heavily in Blackpool’s incoming player list and the likes of Jonjo Shelvey and Callum McManaman have also been discounted here. Both may return, but at the moment their parent clubs want them in and around their first team squads. On the flipside Danny Wilson coming in from Liverpool has been included here as he is set to stay for the second half of the season.

Notable mentions

In the first half of the season two players deserve recognition as they are new additions and have contributed positively to Blackpool’s season. Firstly, there is Mark Howard who has deputised in the absence of Matt Gilks and proved to be a very able ‘keeper. Should Gilks be out for a lengthy period of time then Blackpool appear to have dependable back up in place. Secondly, Lomano LuaLua has come in to the forward line scoring three goals and injecting some vibrancy and unpredictability to Blackpool’s attacking play.

Professional Profiling

The foundation for these squad evaluations has been to assess the age and positional profiles based on some guidelines listed in the original post. Roughly speaking the squad should comprise twenty four players, the current squad numbers twenty three. You can see below how the age of the squad compares against the quotas for each age bracket.

The key observation to make here is with the departures of Ormerod & Bogdanovic the squad seems short in the more experienced bracket and there’s a general imbalance from an age perspective across the squad. However, that may not be too bad given the likes of Stephen Crainey, Gary Taylor-Fletcher and Ian Evatt are close to stepping into that bracket. Therefore, recruitment may be focused on the 26 to 30 bracket or otherwise the squad may be a little young moving in to next season and lacking players in their ‘prime’.

Filling Gaps

From a positional point of view things appear much easier to point out.

It appears that the defensive positions are filled up and the forward line is oversubscribed, but the midfield appears a little short. A pre-season article speculated that a left side centre back might be targeted and with the loan of Danny Wilson that gap appears to be filled now. Using the same logic a midfielder may be sought and possibly an attacking one. Essentially it’s a gap that Shelvey was filling and should Liverpool not allow him to return then Holloway will have to look elsewhere. Added to this Holloway may be mindful of the age of any new recruit and might target a player in his prime, however, it’s likely that player will not come cheap and may have to be loaned.

Shut that door

January may well bring some new faces, but it may also bring about some departures. Ian Holloway has already suggested that Premier League teams are looking at some of his players. Who they are hasn’t be openly discussed but it’s no secret that both Matt Gilks and Alex Baptiste are enjoying fine seasons and Matt Phillips’ recent form will have alerted some clubs. If any of those players leave then that it would be remiss of the club not to replace immediately.

Roll on February

What this window brings remains to be seen. Players will be brought in and it’s crucial that those players are additions to fill gaps and bring genuine quality to the squad and that Ian Holloway doesn’t have to search for replacements for key players departing. It’s no secret that Blackpool struggled to recruit the kind of players they wanted last January, however, as with the previous deadline, being in the Championship still allows the club to bring in loan players after the window closes at the end of January. Key last time out in the Championship was the late addition of key loans, it wouldn’t be a shock if it was the same this time, the same outcome would be some achievement.

Blackpool players have been excluded and only players that TD witnessed playing against Blackpool are included. Given that TD has been close to being a part time fan in the last month or so then some good players may have missed out. Missing the home games against Watford and Birmingham may have taken away two contenders for the team. Watford’s Scott Loach and Birmingham’s Chris Burke both had strong games by all acounts. However, they don’t appear here for the reasons stated previously.

This is entirely subjective, without foundation in fact or deeper analysis, just the performance that was witnessed by TD. No players are in here due to reputation or achievement in other games. If that had been the case then TD’s favourite Championship player, Adam Lallana would have made the side comfortably. So without any further wiffle and waffle, here’s the side of the season so far.

The Best Eleven

1. Goalkeeper – David Marshall (Cardiff City)

A strong imposing ‘keeper and TD can’t add much more than that. He’s well known and is more than capable of playing at a higher level.

2. Right Back – Kieran Trippier (Burnley on loan from Manchester City)

A willing and energetic full back who will probably never make the grade at his parent club due to their ability to recruit world class players, but would be a decent acquisition for any club from the lower half of the Premier League down to the top rungs of the Championship.

3. Right Centre Back – Danny Collins (Ipswich Town on loan from Stoke City)

A basic defender, but you know what you’re getting from him. Decent pedigree and at the time of his game at Bloomfield Road, his first for Ipswich, he looked like he could bind a very weak Ipswich back line.

4. Left Centre Back – Jason Shackell (Derby County)

Similar to above, Shackell is a solid defender who does the basics well. At Bloomfield Road earlier this season he was the experience alongside the young Mark O’Brien helping to shut out Blackpool.

5. Left Back – Andrew Taylor (Cardiff City)

Not many left backs have caught the eye of TD, but Taylor looked tidy and willing to push on when space appeared in front of him.

6. Central Midfielder – Grant McCann (Peterborough United)

Sat in front of the Peterborough defence and looked very assured on the ball and disciplined off it.

7. Right Side Midfielder – Don Cowie (Cardiff City)

Excellent on the ball, can pick a pass and deliver a ball in to the box. As with his goalkeeping colleague (Marshall), really should be playing in the Premier League.

8. Left Side Midfielder – Craig Bryson (Derby County)

Energy personified and tactically disciplined. Functional rather than spectacular. He was at the heart of Derby’s game plan to stifle and frustrate Blackpool and chipped in with the winning goal too.

9. Central Striker – Rickie Lambert ( Southampton)

An excellent target man who is powerful, aggressive and strikes the ball with excellent technique as well as rising to score with powerful headers.

10. Right Forward – Marvin Emnes ( Middlesbrough)

Very lively if a little easy to read at times (let’s ball come on to him before rolling off the defender), very hard to handle when he is running either on or off the ball. Blackpool’s high defensive line was teetering on the brink of collapse on many an occasion he was involved in the attacking play.

11. Left Forward – Robbie Brady (Hull City on loan from Manchester United)

Tricky, pacey wide man. Double footed and hard to read his movement with the ball. He may well break through at his parent club should he get the chance (next season at the earliest), should he not, then he’d be in demand from a multitude of clubs. Questions currently centre on where he will spend the second half of the season.

Moving On

Some genuine quality in that side and talent that can play at a higher level and also three loan players, showing how important those players are to Championship sides. A lot is made of the gulf in class between Premier League and Championship, but it really isn’t that wide at all and there’s potentially a lot of overlap between the top Championship sides and lower Premier League side.

How many of these players will make the end of season side remains to be seen, with twenty three games to go it’s all to play for.

Starting out

Ian Holloway made one change in dropping Lomana LuaLua to the bench and bringing in Chris Basham in to midfield. Whilst Nigel Adkins brought back Rickie Lambert from injury to lead the line and Bartosz Białkowski for the injured Kelvin Davis in goal.

Blackpool set up in their 4-3-3 with Basham adding extra bite and cover in the midfield. Southampton on paper looked like a rough 4-4-2 but with plenty of fluidity about it. Both their wide men cut in, their central midfielders sometimes split and Guly Do Prado dropped off Rickie Lambert to receive the ball in between Blackpool’s midfield and defence.

Strategically speaking

Blackpool appeared to set up to counter when under pressure and to assert themselves on the ball should they win it higher up the pitch. This was initially aided with pressure being applied high up the pitch, trying to throw out Southampton’s passing moves from defence.

Southampton appeared to be happy to allow Blackpool the centre ground and go around them and with a mixture of short and long passing. They were aggressive in attack and had plenty of drive from their midfield to run beyond attackers and in behind the defence. They focused their attacks on and around Lambert, using him to set plays up as well as to bully the Blackpool defence and force them deeper.

Swings and roundabouts

The first half swung from Blackpool to Southampton and then back to Blackpool again as both teams enjoyed periods of dominance. In truth, Southampton had the best of the chances in the first half, but their defensive work was unhinged by the mistakes being made by Białkowski in goal. His nerves or even lack of alertness caused gave Blackpool more joy than they perhaps should have had and Southampton’s back line seemed a little thrown off by that. The mistake by Białkowski for the second Blackpool goal seemed to throw the game in to a stunned state before Southampton started to chase the game.

Blackpool at times used the ball very wisely, however, as the game wore on the ball started to come back to them all too often as they lacked a genuine out ball to set up counter attacks or field position. When Blackpool enjoyed their best spells they were usually aided by strong running on and off the ball by Matthew Phillips and Callum McManaman which stretched the play, pushing the Southampton defence back, creating space for Blackpool’s midfielders to step in to and receive the ball.

Southampton looked more fluent when Adam Lallana stepped inside and forward to join the attack. However, to Blackpool’s credit that happened very little, however, when it did, he caused them a lot of problems. The first goal came from Lallana pressure and link up play. What was noticeable about Southampton off the ball was the inconsistency of their pressing. They didn’t seem to press with a consistent intensity or in consistent patterns. If this was intentional then fair enough, however, it would be strange if that was the case. When they stepped up their pressing before the first goal it really appeared to catch Blackpool out who found their space shut out and struggled to work in the tighter spaces.

Bringing it on

Holloway’s team conceded late on in the game, but in truth they invited it. If it was a conscious decision then it was only executed in part. The key in such situations is to do the basics well, blocking, tackling, keeping shape etc, but it’s vital that the pressure can be eased with ‘outballs’ that remain up the field of play for as long as possible. In this case Blackpool struggled to lock down their out balls, either through poor distribution or hold up play. The net effect was that Southampton were in receipt of the ball time and time again, giving Blackpool more and more pressure to handle.

Premier Bound

Southampton are a top Championship side and it showed in this game. Their goalkeeping issues aside (assuming Kelvin Davis isn’t out for too long) they have everything they need to be promoted. Defensively sound, but it’s their attacking options that sets them apart. Admittedly a lot of their plays hang off or come through Rickie Lambert, but they aren’t entirely dependent on him. They have excellent variety to their game. They can pass short and long in all areas, they can build play and have players to thread short balls in the final third, but will go long from front to back to exploit the aerial qualities of Lambert. They vary their player positions to suit themselves, in this game alone there was a lot of position switching within their framework.

As attacking plays go they have some great pre-set moves. As good example of this is the long ball from full back or centre back to the head of Lambert who will flick on to an oncoming wide midfielder cutting in. It’s hard to track the midfield runner and Blackpool struggled at times. When Lambert executes his flick well the opposition defence is turned around in an instant and the goal is exposed.

In this game they also had another element to their attacking play and that was the movement of Guly. He drops off deeper to receive the ball to feet which helps to vary their focus of attack and he can start short passing movements with support from the central midfielders, but also from Lallana who will drift inside to receive.

There may be questions over their dependency on a couple of players, but that is clearly a risk worth taking as they appear so strong in utilising them well. Should Lambert get an injury that keeps him out for a long time then perhaps they may struggle, but with such variety to their game they should cope.

Moving on

Blackpool will be happy with the point, even if they won’t be happy with allowing Southampton to attack them so frequently towards the end. They move in to the festive period with the potential to emerge in January in the play off positions. Nigel Adkins will be happy with the character shown by his team and should have little concern about where his team are heading.

Latin & out again?

Gerardo Bruna has rarely featured for the Tangerines and is on the fringes of the match day squad. Originally recruited to be part of a development squad, he made some intriguing cameos in pre-season, but is yet to make a start in the league. However, since the development squad idea is being questioned by the club, it is now unclear what role he will have at the club.

Bruna describes his best position as a number 10;

“I love to play in the number 10 role and play in between the lines and play the final pass and score some goals”.

“I like to play just behind the striker or in midfield. I like to get on the ball and create for the strikers”.

He is unlikely to find that role at Blackpool due to 4-3-3 being their usual set up. Generally Holloway likes to line up with a holding midfielder flanked by two side midfielders to get forward and support the attack. When Bruna has figured in the team he has been played as a wide forward and he appears to lack the experience in that position to play it effectively. He appears tentative in a forward position, possibly inhibited by the sight of the touchline hemming him in. His performance against Sheffield Wednesday showed that he does like to drift in search of the ball. That tends to back up his own thoughts about his best position and it might be something that Holloway may encourage as it is similar to the way that Gary Taylor-Fletcher plays from a forward position.

He has a little burst of pace, but his frame is fragile and he struggles to sustain enough pace to get away from his man. Plus in the game against Nottingham Forest he came on to the right forward position and that appeared to show that he is very left footed. That isn’t necessarily an issue if a player has a swift change of pace, ease of movement or balance to change direction quickly. However, he appears to be a little short of possessing those qualities.

Whilst being a wide forward may not be his ideal position right now, perhaps it would be something that he could learn. However, Holloway appears to have been less than kind about his application in training. Whilst this could well be viewed as a motivating statement as opposed to one stating the end of his brief career with Blackpool it might be useful to see where he could fit in, should he start to develop his game.

He has an excellent first touch, his passing appears good, although it’s unclear at this stage if he has a full passing range, but it is doubtful he could switch play from flank to flank given a perceived lack of leg strength. He has tricks to beat men in closed spaces and his vision appears good and will comfortably change passing angles and pick out spaces and gaps behind a defence. He also seems to have a latent aggression that has emanated in a few lunges, but that may hint at a playing aggression that could be channelled in to his play.

If he has a future at Blackpool he may need to develop his game and change his aspirations away from his beloved number 10 role. He could be a good inside midfielder on the left given his ability to pass the ball and create. However, the skill set for that particular midfielder also includes, tackling, strength and stamina too. All three of which are key weaknesses and ones that will take time to improve. The questions are: will Holloway allow him to develop at Blackpool or move him on to develop and come back or leave altogether?

No doubting Thomas

Tom Ince has made a much better start to his Blackpool career. His progress is more widely charted than his Argentinian colleague, but it is still useful to examine him in a little more detail. First impressions were of a young player with pace and a trick, but perhaps running too much with his head down, narrowing his field of vision. Taking his place as one of the two wide forwards he appears to have developed with the game time he has had. His first touch is solid, but inconsistent, his passing lacks consistency too. His appreciation of pass weight still seems a little slack and has led to concession of possession at times. However, he has good acceleration and sustains his pace well to beat men. His tricks are a little readable and could do with adding more subtlety and disguise to elevate his one v one play. On the evidence of his strikes against Doncaster he can hit powerful shots and allied to that his delivery from wide free kicks and corners can be useful. He could do with developing more variety to his delivery and perhaps developing his pace of delivery and craft to move the ball with more bias towards the end of its flight.

It appears that mentally he is strong, resilient and doesn’t appear to lose his composure the closer he gets to the opposition goal. Following on from a point made earlier, he needs to increase his field of vision to appreciate his options earlier which will also help with his decision making. Overall, his development appears to be some way ahead of Bruna. If anything he is assisted by the fact he suits the system that Blackpool play and settles well in to either wide forward position and has even dropped deeper and centrally at times. Although in the latter position he lacks experience. However, there’s no reason why over time he couldn’t develop in to a central role, but all the signs are that he is a potentially dangerous attacking wide player. Where he goes from here will be interesting. He appears ambitious and will want to move on at the earliest opportunity, however, his long-term career may well be best served with a lengthy apprenticeship by the seaside under Ian Holloway.

Under the Shel

Most eagerly anticipated upon his arrival was Shelvey. Physically he looks strong and imposing; standing around six feet tall and well developed muscularly fitting the archetypal model of a young English footballer. He has good pace and his stamina looks strong right to the last minute. There are very few doubts about him physically. However, Shelvey may still be developing mentally, both as an adult and as a footballer. The following quote from him lends an insight in to his mind;

“I didn’t know until I got in at half-time and someone mentioned the sending off. I thought they were playing with 11 … obviously I’m that thick!”

This hints at a lack of intelligent thought on the pitch and is possibly an area of concern and could be retrograde to his development and success back at his parent club. At the level that Liverpool aspires to they need intelligent players off and on the pitch. However, he clearly understands space and exploitation of opportunity and with his physical attributes he can seize moments in games and has already shown his willingness to try to dominate by calling for the ball and attempting to command his team mates. He appears to have a strong drive and winning mentality and perhaps this will override his other mental shortcomings.

His first few appearances for the Tangerines saw him take his place in the midfield and whilst his positional sense is solid, his attacking instincts can see him lose his shape in an orthodox midfield three. He has a good range of passing, but his timing and selection of pass is inconsistent. Also, as with Ince whilst his first touch is good it also lacks consistency. In low pressure games, he could easily dominate, however, should a team sense him ponder they could easily throw him off his stride. During the game against Burnley this happened, and he was soon taken out of the midfield as Holloway switched to a conventional 4-4-2 with Shelvey taking up position wide left. Here he looked like he appreciated facing the play with the ball coming on to him and in behind the defence, as well as trying to isolate his opponent in one v one situations.

As has been seen with the goals he has scored he can shoot with both power and accuracy and he appears to be a natural goal scorer, in fact it could be argued that he has the skill set for a central forward role. He can play with his back to goal, he can use his strength to dominate a centre back, drop deep to receive and create both from deep and further up the pitch. In fact in the last two matches he has been taking up position as one of the wide forwards which has seen Blackpool win twice and Shelvey grab a hat trick against Leeds United. Arguably Blackpool’s midfield has been a more coherent unit without him in there, but it has also left him in a position which appears more natural for him. Finally, his tackling is good enough for midfield, but a real concern is his recklessness in the challenge. Against Burnley, he went in to a challenge without looking and went over the top of the ball and put his opponent in danger and he should have been sent off.

Shelvey is only at Blackpool for two more months, but already he has enjoyed some success (5 goals in 7 games), when he returns to Liverpool it is unlikely that he will be ready for first team action right away and another spell at Bloomfield Road (or another club) would help him develop even more. Whatever happens, Liverpool has a versatile attacking talent, who, should he mature and deepen his understanding of the game could prove to be useful for them in the long term. However, given Liverpool’s aspirations and the distance Shelvey has to develop to reach their level it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was allowed to leave Anfield in the summer.

Tomorrow is another day

What is really interesting here is that these are three attacking players coming through the same academy in the last year or two, yet have progressed at different rates and have different skills and abilities. They may have spent varying times at the academy and been touched by other academies elsewhere, but it does offer an intriguing perspective on academy development and development of young footballers. Where these three players traverse as they climb their personal and professional mountains remains to be seen. Early indications suggest two of these players will play Premier League in the long term whilst one may have to work harder to catch them up.

Developing differences

In very broad terms the theory suggests that players are more likely to be scouted if they are born in the first few months of the selection year. For example, if the recruitment year is September to August as it is in football in England then it’s possible to have one child playing with or against another child who is almost a year older. Child A could be born on the 1st September and Child B is born on the 31st August. Consequently Child A has almost a year more of growth in his bones and would give him a considerable advantage in height, strength etc. The theory suggests that these children are scouted as they can physically dominate their smaller counterparts. They then go on to receive the best coaching and advance their development.

The reason it’s being explored here is mainly by pure chance. No new insight can be given on the matter here, but a new data set can be analysed for similar patterns and shared. That chance came when viewing a website (sorry, I cannot remember the site) that listed all the players that have played for Blackpool. Dates of birth were listed, so an opportunity to test the theory came about. The results of that testing will be shared below.

There are caveats around this data*. Firstly, it is in no way a definitive list. Secondly, no referencing to other data sources has taken place to ensure accuracy. Thirdly, some players had dummy dates attached. Fourthly, a small number of the players were born in the 19th century and perhaps not subject to the same forces as their modern counterparts. Lastly, some of the players are from countries outside of the UK and their recruitment years will vary.

Applying it to ‘Pool

The first sort of data produced the graph below. This show each player’s birth month categorised in a calendar year. For instance, you can see that there are 32 players born in January.

January to December

What should be immediately obvious is the spike that occurs in September. In fact the highest month is September at 39 players and the lowest is July with 17. It seems a relatively compelling illustration of the birth month theory. In order to make it more compelling the data has been re-ordered in to the months of the recruitment year, September to August. You can see the outcome below.

September to August

This perfectly sums up the bias towards the recruitment of players in the early months of the recruitment year as you can see the line tail off over the course  of the year.

Maybe tomorrow

This has been done purely because it was of interest to try this with a new set of data, what won’t be done here is to delve any deeper. The books mentioned earlier provide superb material to keep you thinking and are highly recommended. However, it is of interest about how you can get round such bias. The sooner football clubs can get around this then the more likely children will be brought in to game with more game specific talents, such as speed of thought, vision, creativity and less around the physical attributes that are easier to monitor. For a club like Blackpool this may not necessarily need to be a factor as their youth programme produces relatively few first team players, but if the national game is to step up then this is an area that must be overcome with extensive work and improved scouting skills.

*338 players were listed on the site. 9 were removed as they had no date of birth attached, therefore 329 players formed the data used here.

Gone, gone, gone!

First and foremost the most obvious thing missing from Blackpool this season is Charlie Adam. Added to that, both DJ Campbell and David Vaughan left the club in the summer to stay in the league where they rightly belong. What that means in measurable terms is pretty easy to define; however, it has also meant a great deal of upheaval on the pitch too with new players having to come in to replace them.

Statistically Blackpool lost a significant chunk of their goal scoring output, both Adam and Campbell contributed 25 goals last season which equated to 45% of the total goals that Blackpool scored. In the previous season they scored 27 goals which amounted to 36% of the total.

In losing these players and those goals it has led to a selection dilemma for Ian Holloway and this is perfectly summed up when considering the fact that he has rarely stuck with the same first eleven. Barry Ferguson has come in and replaced David Vaughan, but perhaps doesn’t have the same energy as Vaughan. Whereas, Kevin Phillips has come in to replace Campbell but even though he has scored he may not link up play as well as his predecessor. However, more crucially Adam’s goals and goal creation are yet to be replaced. Losing players is a part of football and it’s how a manager copes with that which ultimately determines his success. Either you go like for like, recruit then fit or make concessions for replacements.

Shape Shifting

A closer look will now be placed upon the way that Blackpool are setting up on the pitch. For a bit of background, Holloway has deployed a version of a 4-3-3 system for most of his time in charge. Last season the midfield shape varied mainly due to a pre-season injury to Keith Southern before reverting to a flatter midfield shape towards the end of the season. As stated earlier it appears that Charlie Adam hasn’t been replaced and arguably he cannot be replaced for the budget that Blackpool has available. He was the crucial link from deep midfield to attack and to understand why that is affecting Blackpool now, his role and position must be understood in more detail.

The inter-relationship and roles of players on the pitch give formations their dynamic. For example, a 4-3-3 could be seen as a chain of relationships on the pitch that need players to combine. Not just from within one department i.e. the defence, but from more than one. The diagram below will hopefully give a visual representation of the point and to show how the side midfielders (Adam & Southern) relate to the defence and the attack.

Vital linkage

Last season, David Vaughan sat deeper in the midfield than Adam, who occupied the left hand side of the midfield three. His team within a team, aside from the midfield unit was the team of left full back and left forward too. Through this structure he excelled at bringing Stephen Crainey in to the play and building attacks with him and the left forward. This bridged the distance between midfield and attack and when it worked was when Blackpool were at their most devastating.

The balance on the right of midfield was missing for two reasons. Either Elliot Grandin drifted centrally or Keith Southern tended to sit more instead of advancing with his unit. However, as Gary Taylor-Fletcher offered the team creativity from high up on the pitch on the right it helped to make up the balance. So how is this affecting Blackpool this season?

Effectively that link no longer exists, the left footed midfielder has disappeared and with it, that link too. Stephen Crainey appears to get forward less often and Blackpool’s attack often appears slow and predictable. One key point of creation has been removed and a key point of team cohesion too. It will take time to eradicate and Ian Holloway has appeared to struggle to overcome this.

Narrow minded

The impact of losing Adam has caused a knock on effect for the midfield, which has been further hampered by the early season injury to Grandin. The opening game at Hull saw Grandin attack more aggressively than Adam would have and often he failed to track back. If you want an idea of the formation, it was very much a 4-2-1-3. In going for a 4-2-1-3 in the first match Holloway lost a little sight of the flatter midfield three and once Grandin was injured, Taylor-Fletcher was used in the role to varying degrees of success and arguably removed his forward from his most potent position as that of a forward, dropping deep to receive. This has led to Blackpool getting really out of shape and awkward at times and this has made Holloway twist and turn to get his new players in to something that is workable. Allied to Grandin’s forward positioning, Keith Southern has tended to stay deep and even drift centrally making Blackpool’s midfield shape very narrow. The diagram below shows how Blackpool’s links in the 4-3-3 have become stretched.

Really stretching the midfields effectiveness, making them narrow and easy to play against.

Stream of consciousness

This loss of on-field shape has emanated itself in two ways, an unconscious way through players losing their way in a new system and more recently a conscious decision by Holloway to change the shape. What does this mean? Blackpool’s midfield shape had the midfield triangle of players pointing towards the opposition goal instead of the other way round in a conventional 4-3-3 shape. As both of the two players who have dominated in that role (Grandin and Taylor-Fletcher) are naturally attacking and have fewer defensive instincts that someone like Adam. This meant that at times this season they have been caught high up the pitch and any numerical advantage a three-man midfield might have given Blackpool has been lost. You can see this in the diagram below. When attacking, the formation has looked like an aggressive 4-2-4 and even at times a 4-4-2. This happened at times last season leaving Blackpool exposed in midfield and it has started again this season. When Grandin and Taylor-Fletcher are on their games such an application of their skills can be amazing to watch, however, lose the ball and all of a sudden Blackpool are open and ready to be attacked.

It appears that Holloway acknowledged that the shape was too flimsy with the players he was using and consciously switched the team in to a 4-4-2 after a treble substitution against Doncaster which contributed to a comeback and a 2-1 win. He followed up against Nottingham Forest with a 4-4-2 but with less effect and switched mid game against Burnley to a 4-4-2. This was a sign that Holloway could see his team and how they were naturally forming on the pitch and for him to switch to 4-4-2 must have riled him as he doesn’t like the formation. However, you can see his logic for taking these steps and actively pushing his team towards a change of shape. It doesn’t appear to be a way forward and the recent 5-0 victory over Leeds saw him move back towards his more conventional 4-3-3. The question will be, will he switch back to the more attacking 4-2-1-3 once Grandin is fit again and if he does, will he remember to revert to a flatter midfield three when things are going against his side.

New solutions?

Blackpool are at their best when they string together short passes and vary the tempo and point of attack. However, managers know this now and are actively trying to stop them and this has been key to Blackpool’s inconsistent start. Last season few managers tried to alter their style to combat Blackpool and paid the price with a defeat. This season Blackpool are there to be shot at. Hull did what they could to stop Blackpool in the first game, but Derby were the first team to really jam up the midfield and stop Blackpool playing. It is here that Holloway and his players have been slow to find ‘in game’ solutions to tactical problems being posed. Partly because of the players at his disposal, but partly because this is a new experience for them. They’ve been used to having space to play their game and express themselves, but now they are back in the Championship teams want to throw them off their stride and deny them all the space they can.

The midfield approach of some teams this season has exploited the previously mentioned issue of an aggressively placed midfielder and accentuated the distance between Blackpool’s midfield and attack and contributed to the cutting off of the supply to the forwards.

A narrow midfield four and effectively split Blackpool's 4-3-3 shape

The diagram above highlights how a well-drilled midfield has overcome Blackpool and effectively divided their team. Added to this Blackpool have been slow to react in the game. Both Charlie Adam and David Vaughan have excellent appreciation of tempo and when to start picking up the pace of pace to circulate the ball faster. Blackpool have few midfielders to do this now and any numerical disadvantage they’ve suffered could have been overcome with quicker movement of the ball. It was noticeable in the game against Burnley that in the second half Barry Ferguson pushed harder when in possession to drive the team on and for the first time this season it appears like Blackpool’s midfield had gained a new dynamic. Add in the better ball skills of Ludovic Sylvestre in the game against Leeds and all over a sudden the solutions appear to be more forthcoming.

Let’s play Ludo

In fact, the reintroduction of Sylvestre may well have done more to reinvigorate Blackpool than the emphatic nature of the recent back to back victories. He offers the more natural midfield option, less likely to get caught high up the pitch, comfortable in the deep, he also appreciates game tempo and understand where passes should be directed in the final third. What this has highlighted is that the solutions Blackpool have been looking for aren’t that hard to find and hopefully Holloway will veer away from changes in shape to remembering what has worked well in the past and who he still has at his disposal.

Moving on

So what have we learned in this rather long-winded ramble? That Blackpool have struggled for consistency this season due to losing key players and not knowing how best to replace them. By losing sight of what they do well. By losing their shape that brought them so much success. And finally by not adjusting to sides who are happy to shut them out and take a point.

As highlighted in part one, this is a long season and no doubt Blackpool will go through similar cycles of poor and good form. However, the signs are forming that Holloway is learning that his new team may not be far away from showing their real potential.

When Blackpool fans were melting in the heat of Wembley stadium there was something of a mirage forming in front of their eyes. Twice coming from behind to secure a victory and their place in the Premier League seemed surreal. On reflection that season tends to be viewed with great fondness, particularly for that day at Wembley and an incredible performance against Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. However, when really breaking that season down it certainly wasn’t plain sailing and provides an interesting context that this season perhaps should be viewed.

Context & perspective

In reaching the play offs Blackpool racked up 70 points, finding the back of the net 74 times, which works out at a points per game average of 1.52 and a goals scored per game average of 1.61.

Three blips allowed

You can see on the chart above how Blackpool’s points accumulated over the course of the season. However, note how on three occasions the line went flat as they lost either back to back games or as in one instance, three consecutive games. This serves to demonstrate that over a season teams do have poor periods, but ultimately it’s how you recover from those upsets that determines how a team does by game 46. You can also see the step incline at the end of the season as the team pushed hard for the play-offs.

Heal & grow

Blackpool fans would no doubt like to see their team adjusting to life back in the Championship in a smooth fashion and riding high, it wasn’t like that last time around and with the loss of key players it’s not going to be like that this time around. Yes, the start Blackpool has had might strike the casual observer as odd, perhaps suggesting a hangover from the Premier League. Perhaps that is the case, but Blackpool are being rebuilt and that takes time. In his first season in charge it took Ian Holloway a considerable time to get his team functioning and this time around it may be the case again. Yes, an argument could be put together showing that he shouldn’t be in this position and that the club should have recruited in better time and funded a few more high profile signings. However, that wasn’t the case and Holloway has to play with what he has, adding loans where he can and hoping that he can land his main targets in the January transfer window.

Four changes

Just a quick glance at the teams from Ian Holloway’s first game in charge against QPR in August 2009 to the side who beat Cardiff in the final at Wembley shows how a side can evolve over the course of a Championship season.

The side that played Holloway's first game in charge is on the left, set against the play off winning team on the right.

That initial side (on the left above) had the nucleus of the team that ended up being promoted, however, four spots changed throughout the course of the season. Campbell came in to provide goals, Coleman with his attacking drive from full back, Ormerod with his intuitive running and instinctive timing and finally Matt Gilks who made the number one spot his own with his effective communication and shot stopping.

Completing the jigsaw

Blackpool’s last campaign saw the side develop over the course of the season and once the play off team was completed with the signing of Seamus Coleman from Everton the team went on a run over the last nine games of the season to secure their play off spot. Whilst this isn’t an ideal approach it gives hope as the season progresses and after every set back a quick glance across to the last time out will help to ease any worries. In fact before the play off side was completed Blackpool averaged 1.35 points per game and 1.43 goals per game. From the moment Coleman came in the points per game went up to 2.22 and goals per game jumped up to 2.33.

What a difference some loans make

Whilst this doesn’t offer a direct comparison it hopefully shows how a side evolves from beginning to end. This season is different and offers different challenges, but looking at the nucleus this time around Blackpool currently have around four spaces in their first eleven that are waiting to be taken. Those players are out there and may already be in the squad. It’s up to Holloway to find them and blend them; if he does it in a timely manner then Blackpool will be looking up. If not, then he may require a little more patience from the terraces as he looks to the following season for his new team to come to fruition.

Finally, when looking at the first 14 games of this season against the last season in the Championship Blackpool really aren’t much worse off. Last time out they had 23 points on the board, scoring 19 goals. This time out (bolstered by a 5-0 rout of Bristol City) they’ve scored one more goal (20) but have 4 less points.

When is a bad start not a bad start?

Marathon, not a sprint

Monitoring this season against that last Championship season may well be the best tonic for Blackpool supporters as well as the understanding that teams do evolve in this league. The length of season allows for mishaps and loss of form and the availability of loans allow teams to flex their personnel almost on a monthly basis should they wish. The comparisons made here aren’t flawless, but offer some guide, however, it’s always important to be mindful of what happened last season. Nottingham Forest grabbed sixth place with a total of 75 points, so Blackpool may well have to go further than last time they were here in order to get in to the play offs.

Part two of this analysis can be found here – Part Two – The Shape Of Another Journey